How wrong are we?
Every morning we freeze the day's forecast in stone before the park opens; every 15 minutes we record what actually happened. This page grades us — automatically, publicly, with no editorial thumb on the scale. We haven’t found another wait-time forecaster that publishes one.
How the scorecard works
At 7:00 each morning, park time, we freeze our forecast for every ride and every hour of the day at each Walt Disney World park, and next to it we freeze Disney’s own hourly forecast from the official feed. Through the day our collector records every posted wait every 15 minutes. The next night both forecasts are graded against the average wait actually posted in each hour.
The headline number is mean absolute error: how many minutes off a forecast was, on average, per ride-hour. “Head to head” compares the two forecasts only on the ride-hours both of them covered, so neither gets credit for easy rides the other skipped. Every graded day is kept permanently — we can’t quietly drop a bad one — and the raw record is published as JSON at /api/accuracy.
Where we lose, it says so: Disney’s forecast beats ours at EPCOT. Paris parks join the scorecard as their own forecasts mature. How the forecasts are made.
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